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INSIDE STORY: Security experts predict that there will be more bloody attacks in the future due to the new ADF commander’s altered operational tactics.

Leading security experts have weighed in and predicted that additional deadly attacks will continue happening and that many Ugandans are likely to lose their lives and property. This prediction comes days after suspected terrorists from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) attacked Kasese district and killed more than 42 students of Lubhiriha Secondary School.

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has ordered more deployment in Kasese and the surrounding districts in response to the security experts’ advice.
Brig has confirmed that this order is being carried out by the highest levels of army leadership. Gen. The UPDF spokesperson is Felix Kulayigye.
ADF commanders Mulaalo and Amigo Kibirige were replaced by Abua-Kasi, an Arab, and Museveni noted in his directive that the army would not leave the Mwalika Valley, where they were looking for him.
Amigo and Mulaalo were rendered ineffective.
However, after Sheikh Jamil Kyagulanyi Mukulu, the ADF’s founding commander, was detained in Tanzania in 2015, Sheikh Musa Baluku took over command of the organization and reportedly reorganized the entire ADF command structure, according to highly placed sources in the nation’s intelligence agencies.
According to the sources, Hassan Nyanzi, Mukulu’s son, was preferred as Mukulu’s replacement by the external wing of the ADF, which included the nations that funded the terrorist group, including the United Kingdom and the United States.

Nyanzi, one of the ADF fighters who received president Museveni’s pardon, is currently in the United Kingdom. However, according to sources, he first spent some time in Kampala before sneaking back to the UK.
Sources revealed that ADF commanders in the field are adamant that Mukulu’s arrest was the result of betrayal after some of his coworkers accused him of secretly cooperating with officials in president Museveni’s government.
Those making the accusations against Mukulu also stated that at the time of his arrest, he was looking for ways to negotiate with Museveni so that he would be allowed to return to Uganda peacefully.

He was sick of running from the law. Even though he was receiving a sizable sum of money from his funders, the source revealed that the man wanted to spend his remaining time on earth with his family, especially his late mother, the late Aisha Nakiyemba, who passed away last year.
“But Sheikh Baluku’s men also wanted to kill him after accusing him of giving up the fight and using ADF funds provided to him to help finance the war to enrich himself,” the source continued. He owns several apartments in London near the Arsenal football stadium, in Manchester, England, in Nairobi, Kenya, and in Tanzania because of this.

According to additional sources, Mukulu’s son Nyanzi once wished to use ADF command as a negotiating chip to secure his father’s release from custody and make a formal request to President Museveni to drop all charges of treason, terrorism, and murder that had been brought against him.
President Museveni’s senior media advisor, Joseph Tamale Mirundi, claims that after Mukulu was apprehended in Tanzania and brought back to Uganda, his men threatened to kill the ministers if their boss was killed and threatened to hunt them down and cut off their heads.
He clarified that it was for this reason that Museveni’s administration slowed down the swift prosecution of Mukulu at the Kampala High Court’s Crimes War Division in order to protect his officials, particularly his ministers.
Sheikh Baluku sent his henchmen to kill Mukulu’s men in Uganda, and after Mukulu was captured, Sheikh Baluku destroyed all of Mukulu’s connections and cells there.

According to sources, Brig. Gen. Maj. Christopher Sserunjogi Ddamulira, director of crime intelligence for the police, and Maj. Gen. Sheikh Baluku is establishing James Birungi as the new commandant of the Chieftaincy of Military Intelligence.
According to sources, the reason why recruitment in the nation is so high is because sheikh Baluku has amassed a sizable sum of money from foreign terrorist organizations like ISIS.
They continued by saying that Sheikh Baluku had even modified the strategies his men were employing to carry out their operations.
They are concentrating a lot of their efforts on enlisting women, young girls, and boys in order to build a strong base in the nation, particularly in crowded areas of the city suburbs.
Urban terrorism is extremely difficult, expensive, and deadly to combat, according to renowned security expert Charles Rwomushana, who spoke to the Grapevine.

President Museveni is cautioned by Rwomushana to exercise extreme caution and to be ready for brutal combat.
Although President Museveni and his Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) counterpart Felix Tshisekedi signed a deal to cooperate in the fight against ADF terrorists operating in DRC forests under the Shujaa military operation, according to Edgar Tabaro, a city lawyer with KTA Advocates who is also an expert on security in East and Central Africa, it will be very challenging to completely end terrorist attacks against Uganda and other neighboring countries.
He acknowledged that while many ADF camps were destroyed by UPDF military attacks, they are still in operation and receiving orders from their Command Sector 6 operation command center.
The ADF operates in small groups, which helps them carry out their missions and achieve their goals, and they have a large network that they use to direct their operations, he continued.
He reveals that, similar to other terrorist organizations, the ADF has a strong presence in the neighborhood because of their proficiency with local lingo and behavior, which helps them understand their targets.

“Terrorism is a significant issue at the moment, necessitating both community and military vigilance. In addition, there are numerous “sleeper” terrorist cells operating across the entire nation, including in Kampala. They are now deeply ingrained in the political establishment, which regards military overthrow of President Museveni as the only viable option. Attacks by terrorists help them advance their agenda, he claims.
Tabaro adds that it is simple to identify the traits of newly recruited terrorists.
“If they are fresh off of training and have only recently traveled to urban areas to carry out their assignments, they pick up the spending habits. They frequently reserve expensive lodges, so lodge owners should be very careful to record visitors to their facilities. To prevent violence, they should show them their identity cards; if they cannot, they should alert security. The community and military must work together and interact in order to establish terrorist hideouts.

He explains that terrorists have modified their methods and that kidnappings are done to enlist new fighters.
And because terrorists have high sexual demands, they kidnap young girls and women.
He continues by saying that since they lack access to women where they receive their training in bushes, when these terrorists travel to cities, they spend a large portion of the funds provided for their operations on hiring sex workers.
As a result, they spend a lot of their time at sex workers’ businesses when they visit cities.
He continues by saying that terrorists spend a significant portion of the cash provided to them by their superiors during operations on young girls who are old enough to attend school so they can have sex with them, on women they seduce and on prostitutes they will later hire as spies.
He issues a warning to parents and school officials to monitor their children’s movements closely because they might be used as recruits for terrorist activities.

He goes on to say that modern intelligence technology, which is used to conduct surveillance on terrorist movements and intercept their communications in order to determine their operations, is the reason why governments in the western world, such as those of the United States of America and the United Kingdom, always issue warnings about terrorist attacks.
He argues that the United States even has access to satellite images showing the terrorists’ movements, so Uganda should always take these warnings seriously.
According to Al-Hajji Sadam Gayira, the leader of the People’s Progressive Party (PPP), terrorism is a global issue, particularly at this time when superpower nations are at war with one another.
Insecurity in Africa, according to Gayira, will increase as a result.

He continues by saying that the rivalry among the superpower nations will lead to an increase in warlords in Africa who will have more opportunities to rule in places like the DRC.
He explains that nations like the United States and the United Kingdom, which have aided Uganda and other African nations in the fight against terrorism, are now focusing on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
According to Gayira, America and his allies hold President Museveni in particular in high esteem for his decision to support Russia even though he claims to be neutral. Gayira claims that this miscommunication will give terrorists room to operate in Uganda and throughout Africa.

He continues by saying that America is no longer considering Africa because it is very aware that it is at war with China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, and that the outcome of the conflict in the Ukraine will determine the future of the dollar as the world’s currency and America’s position as the world’s superpower.
He asserts that the west will likely support terrorist organizations that are based in hostile nations, just as America did in Syria when it backed ISIS militants to further its interests in Middle Eastern nations.
“I cannot blame our security for what occurred in Kasese because the issue is much more serious than it appears to be. I’m warning Ugandans to prepare for the worst because super powers are more concerned with competing for superpower status than with promoting democratic ideals, combating terrorism, and fighting corruption in developing nations, Gayira says.

The conflict between President Museveni and the ADF is historical and dates back to the time of Amos Bazira, according to Rwomushana, a former agent with the nation’s Internal Security Organization (ISO).
By the time President Museveni was engaged in a full-scale battle to overthrow Dr. Milton Obote’s administration, according to Rwomushana, Bazira was a strong individual in Rwenzori and served as an intelligence officer in Obote’s administration.
He continues by saying that Bazira was killed in Nairobi, Kenya, under dubious circumstances, and that his followers, particularly in the Rwenzori Mountains, were skeptics because he was their commander in the battle to prevent Museveni from entering the Rwezururu Mountains.
He claims that after Bazira’s passing, his conflict with Museveni intensified and turned tribal, leading to the imprisonment of some individuals and the deaths of others.
He went on to say that when the ADF was young, a number of individuals from the Busoga and Ankole regions joined it with the intention of toppling President Museveni’s government. However, when they were defeated, Museveni security later branded them as Rwenzori residents.

He maintains that the ongoing attacks are well known to President Museveni’s deep state, that Museveni’s army destroyed the ADF, and that Ugandans will soon learn the truth.
Although he has little ability to control what is about to happen, he advises President Museveni to place his son, who is also the senior presidential advisor, in control of the army during operation.
“People will perish like those who were killed in Kasese, but the big question is what will happen when Museveni’s enemies gain more power like what is happening in Sudan,” Rwomushana believes. “At the moment, you cannot see the enemies, they tactically do not talk, which is why Museveni’s security is disseminating false information to the public.”.

Brig, though. Gen. The UPDF’s spokesperson, Felix Kulayigye, maintains that the ADF is no longer a threat to the nation’s security, and as a result, they have lost even their main goal of seizing power.
However, President Museveni blamed corruption in the army for recent attacks on the UPDF, particularly the one last month when Al-Shabab terrorists attacked their base in Bulo Mureer, Somalia.
He disclosed that the army’s top brass is money-minded, which is why they send incompetent soldiers to fight Al-Shabab terrorists in Somalia such as cooks, their personal assistants, and secretaries.

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